2013 Predictions Sunday, Dec 30 2012

Its that time of year when I take a stab at guessing what will happen in the new year. Just like always, I will take a stab at national politics, international politics, the economy, and sports.

Here’s how I did last year.

National

*There will be a “fiscal cliff” deal by the end of January. Clinton era tax rates return for those that make over $300-$400k, while everyone else will pay tax rates higher than Bush era tax rates but lower than Clinton era tax rates. The automatic cuts will be postponed to later years.

*There will be a debt ceiling fight. America’s credit worthiness will be downgraded. Ultimately, the debt ceiling will be raised with no real spending cuts or entitlement reforms.

*No gun control legislation will pass this year on the Federal level. However, the left will embark on a cultural campaign against gun ownership in general.

*Minor filibuster reform will be enacted in the Senate and will be largely limited to Presidential appointments and budgetary issues.

*Chris Cristie is reelected governor of New Jersey and Terry McCauliffe is elected governor of Virginia.

*There will be a significant terrorist attack on US soil.

*Gay marriage becomes legal in Illinois.

*Proposition 8 in California is struck down by the Supreme Court on very narrow grounds that would apply on to that particular case.

*At least one state abolishes the death penalty.

*John Kerry will be confirmed as Secretary of State, but Chuck Hagel will be denied Secretary of Defense.

International

*Japan begins to rearm and becomes more aggressive with China.

*North Korea will create an incident with South Korea that will raise tensions but will ultimately die back down after a month or two.

*NATO forces strike Syria and force Bashir Assad from power.

*Hugo Chavez finally dies and makes his voyage to Hell.

*The European Union continues on the path towards centralizing into a superstate, while anti-EU parties do well in various national elections.

*Netanyahu reelected as Israeli Prime Minister

*Hezbollah launches attacks on Israel and Israel invades Lebanon.

*Mexico’s drug war winds down as the new PRI government starts paying off all sides.

*There will be no attack on Iran.

*The UN intervention in Mali successfully drives Islamists out of northern Mali.

Economic

*Oil tests $200 a barrel in the summer.

*US goes back into recession due to the “fiscal cliff” and higher taxes.

*China begins to go into recession.

*Gold prices remain largely flat.

*Unemployment hovers around 8% while real unemployment continues around 15-20%.

Sports

*NHL 2012-13 season is cancelled due to the lockout

*Denver Broncos defeat the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl

*Alabama wins the BCS National Championship

*Manchester United wins the English Premier League

*New York Yankees win the World Series

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Go Home Wayne LaPierre, You’re Drunk Saturday, Dec 22 2012

National Rifle Association Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre broke his organization’s silence since last week’s atrocity at Sandy Hook Elementary by giving a press conferencethis morning. The press conference’s tone was rambling at times and it appeared to generally lack focus. The NRA gave some reasons they thought that there were mass shootings

There exists in this country, sadly, a callous, corrupt and corrupting shadow industry that sells and stows violence against its own people. Through vicious, violent video games with names like “Bullet Storm,” “Grand Theft Auto,” “Mortal Combat,” and “Splatterhouse.”

LaPierre also went on to blame violent movies and music videos as well. LaPierre also appeared to claim that there was a media conspiracy to cover up the role of violent media by blaming gun owners.

The problem with blaming violent video games for crime is that its simply not true as is pointed in this piece in the National Review. Also, is the message that we need to gut the First Amendment to save the Second Amendment the right message we need to send right now?

LaPierre unfortunately wasn’t finished with his Joe Biden impersonation. He had some suggestions for improving school security.

I call on Congress today, to act immediately to appropriate whatever is necessary to put armed police officers in every single school in this nation. And, to do it now to make sure that blanket safety is in place when our kids return to school in January.

First question, why is this a Federal responsibility? I thought conservatives were against a Federal role in education. Second question, where is the money going to come since we’re running deficits of over $1 trillion? Thirdly, is turning our schools into prisons the best use of our resources?

Granted, the NRA’s current proposal on this topic utilizes retired police and military that are trained by the NRA, but eventually the Federal government, given its track record on these types of programs, will likely take it over.

Each local school district needs to come up with their own plan to best suit their own needs. The decision to have armed police in a school needs to be up to each community and local school district and they should pay the cost if they choose to go that route. Education is either entirely a state and local responsibility or its not. LaPierre’s approach appears to be doing for schools what the TSA has done for airport security.

Finally, I was struck by these comments in the LaPierre presser.

How can we possibly even guess how many, given our nation’s refusal to create an active national database of the mentally ill?

Quick poll of my readers, raise your hands if you trust this current administration with any database. Given that just about everything these days can be classified as a “mental illness”, this proposal seems to be a genuine threat to the liberty of all Americans. Especially since many if not most people suffering from mental illness pose no threat to others.

Unfortunately, LaPierre’s clown act distracted from his good points about the ignorance of the media about firearms and the refusal of our so-called Attorney General and gun dealer to Mexican drug cartels, Eric Holder, to enforce the gun laws currently on the books. The press conference was a devastating own goal that hurt the cause of the Second Amendment. If we are going to fight new gun bans in part based on a freedom argument, we need to be in support for all the Bill of Rights, not just a particular one. We need to ditch the embarrassing and anti-freedom NRA and get behind other organizations that fight for our right to keep and bear arms.

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Off The Cliff We Go Thursday, Dec 20 2012

Tonight, Speaker of the House John Boehner declined to bring his so-called “Plan B” for averting the so-called fiscal cliff for a vote. “Plan B” did not have enough support among House Republicans to pass. The House immediately voted to adjourn until after Christmas. We’re pretty much going off the cliff unless something drastic happens in the next couple of weeks.

The GOP messaging and generally how they have conducted themselves in this crisis is abysmal. The House GOP should be out front trying to point out in every media appearance that they passed legislation in August extending the Bush tax rates for everyone and that the Senate has done nothing about it. But they haven’t talked about this, instead they have bought into the Democrat party’s class warfare arguments hook line and sinker. First it was the GOP leadership’s proposal to cap deductions for wealthy taxpayers, then it was getting into general agreement with President-Messiah Barack Obama about taxing the eeevvviiilll rich. For these basic marketing failures alone, the House GOP is in dire need of new leadership, starting with a new Speaker. If the Republican Party cannot be counted on to oppose tax increases, what is the point of voting for them?

All President-Messiah Obama has to do at this point is do nothing. Republicans are so afraid that they will be blamed for going off the fiscal cliff that they will give him exactly what he wants. If by some miracle House Republicans somehow receive a backbone from Santa for Christmas, Obama still wins because taxes go up for all Americans; not just the eeevvviiilll rich.

The only thing Republicans can do at this point is walk away. Let Obama win this battle because there is nothing to negotiate with. Vote present in the House for Obama’s plan and don’t filibuster Obama’s plan in the Senate. Let Obama and the Democrats own the consequences of their economic policies, for better or worse.

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What Is Constitutional Conservatism Thursday, Dec 13 2012

Since the defeat of the Republican Party last month in the elections by our glorious Dear Ruler Barack Obama, many questions are being asked about the Republican Party and by extension the conservative movement. One of the first questions that comes up is how the Republican Party and maybe conservatism itself has to change in order to be competitive in future elections. The future of conservatism is to return to the first principles of limited government, Federalism, and individual liberty. The key to that is by embracing constitutional conservatism.

Constitutional conservatism is what exactly what it says, governing according to the Constitution. Constitutional conservatives like myself believe that the powers of the Federal government are limited, especially by Article 1, Section 8. There is no Constitutional justification for things like the Department of Education, food stamps, Obamaphones, nutrition guidelines and the vast majority of the other things the Federal government does. The Federal government exceeding its Constitutional limits is why we run annual deficits of over $1 trillion and have a national debt of around $16 trillion. The most logical way to bring down the deficit or better yet eliminate it without resorting to job killing tax increases is to eliminate all unconstitutional spending.

While we respect the entire Constitution and the Bill of Rights, constitutional conservatives also strongly believe in the Tenth Amendment to the Constitution, not because we want to return to Jim Crow or some other nonsense the many on the left believe, but because we know what the priorities, needs, and values of Alabama and California are different from each other. One size fits all is usually not a good approach to public policy. Hot button issues such as abortion and gay marriage and even less controversial things such as education are best left to the governments that are closest to the people and therefore more accountable to them. On Federal level, this means rejecting both left-wing nanny statists like Michelle Obama and social issue crusaders like Rick Santorum.

Finally, a Constitutional foreign policy is one that puts America first and abides by the Constitution. We believe in a strong national defense, but we also reject the notion that America must be the world’s policeman. If we must go to war, it must be to do defend the nation itself or protect one of our nation’s vital interests. Congress must declare war or at the very least authorize it in accordance with the Constitution. As for foreign aid, all that we ask is for countries like Egypt, Libya, and Pakistan hate us for free instead of being paid to hate us. Finally, constitutional conservatives realize that the cesspool that is the United Nations cannot be reformed. Instead, the United States should withdraw from that despicable organization and throw them out of New York City.

By returning to constitutional principles, conservatism can become politically competitive again and present a clear alternative to the totalitarian progressive left.

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Our Time For Choosing Thursday, Dec 6 2012

Our rulers in Washington DC are fighting over the so-called “fiscal cliff” which means that at the end of the year a bunch of “spending cuts” and tax increases will take effect causing all sorts of calamities. Our wonderful representatives in Congress and our brilliant President/Messiah, Barack Obama are trying to work out a “balanced” deal to make everything alright. The “balanced” deal appears to be we raise taxes today, especially on the evil “rich”, and that we cut spending in a few years (ie. never). No one on Capitol Hill dares to suggest that instead of asking American taxpayers to pay more taxes that we actually, you know cut spending. The fiscal cliff debate is actually America’s time for choosing of whether or not we will be a country that values freedom and liberty or we will be a country subservient to the state.

Both parties proposals’ are generally the same. Higher taxes, no real spending cuts, and no real entitlement reform. The only differences are the numbers and who benefits and who loses. There is no real choice for those of us who believe in liberty and freedom. The Republican Party, which is supposed to be the party of limited government, is now actively purging fiscal conservatives from important committee positions. What are those of us who believe in liberty supposed to do?

The solution is simple, we must launch a hostile takeover of the Republican Party. We need encourage our libertarian friends to abandon the Libertarian Party, which has accomplished a grand total of nothing in its 40 years of existence. Conservatives and libertarians need to get involved in the Republican party, especially on the local level. Work your way up the party ranks and eventually become the establishment.

At the same time, we need to primary big government Republicans and if necessary, use third party efforts to defeat them. We may have to come to the conclusion that the Republican Party is beyond repair and start laying the foundations of a new center-right party to replace it.

Finally, back to the Fiscal Cliff issue. Republicans must hold the line on taxes at all costs. There is no opportunity to win entitlement reform and there is no opportunity to win spending cuts. Frankly, defense is in need of cuts as well. If the GOP does hold the line on taxes, it may not win this battle, but it will benefit in 2014 and 2016 as it becomes a credible alternative to the Democrats. If the GOP surrenders, even if it is just to “close loopholes”, it will die. Why should the American people vote for Democrat-lite?

If we are destined to lose, let’s fight and die with honor on our principles.

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